MRBM Launched & Intercepted
The conflict escalated to a new level today. Yemen just launched a Medium Range Ballistic Missile (MRBM) against Israel, requiring the FIRST OPERATIONAL USAGE of the Israeli Arrow 3 interceptor system.
Israel's Iron Dome interceptor system is in constant use against short-range lower altitude missiles. The Arrow 3 system is required to intercept an MRBM following a trajectory outside the atmosphere like an ICBM.
The MRBM missle may have been a version of the Burkan-3, which has an approximate payload capacity of 250kg. Based on the chart below, a reasonable guess for damage radius from a conventional warhead might be about 0.5km, assuming an inverse-cubic decrease in damage radius proportional to a linear decrease in payload mass. The downtown area of Tel-Aviv has an approximate radius of 2km, so a direct hit in the center of Tel-Aviv by a Burkan-3 missile would cause horrific devastation. Whether or not the Iran-backed Houthis assumed it would actually hit anything, a new red line has just been crossed in the level of warfare they are willing to risk.
Israel felt compelled for the first time to utilize their supply of Arrow interceptors, reserved for the most grave threats to national existence. This is equivalent to the United States activating Patriot interceptors, which are reserved as a deterrent against Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) threats.
Imagine if this missile had been carrying an Iranian nuclear device. Since the Burkan series is based on the Scud-3 design, it may be compatible with the Soviet design for 5-80 kiloton thermonuclear warheads.
If Iran is testing Israeli missile defenses by proxy, then successful intercept demonstrations, like seen today, may cause Iran to give up on missile attacks and attempt to draw in a Russian and Turkish air assault on Israel -- The Magog Invasion of Ezekiel 38 & 39.